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2026-05-07 — May Q&A Part 2

date
2026-05-07
episode_type
q-and-a
source
public

Public-feed companion to the Tuesday Patreon Q&A. Member questions cover 24-team playoff doomerism, the Michigan State / Pat Fitzgerald hire, exciting new coach/QB pairings, Sark hot-seat / Arch Manning expectations, Mike Norvell's future, and an off-topic discussion of video podcasting and appearance norms.

Key Takes

  • No mass exodus from college football, even at 24 teams — but the gap between decision-makers and consumers has never been larger. The sport is unkillable so long as Saturdays in week seven still feel like Saturdays in week seven. The doom is the aggregate of small offenses (late kickoffs, paywalls, calendar bloat) rather than any single structural change. (2026-05-07 College Football Is Unkillable)
  • The real risk of expansion isn't current fans leaving — it's making the sport too complicated for new ones to join. A 16-year-old has to absorb prep recruiting, portal, NIL, realignment, and constant postseason changes just to follow a team. The NFL is structurally easier to adopt. That is the existential threat. (2026-05-07 Barrier to Entry Is the Real Existential Risk)
  • The fastest way to lose fans isn't structural change — it's losing games. Fans who walked away from Oklahoma State, Nebraska, FSU didn't leave because of NIL or expansion; they left because of bad QB play, mediocre coaching, and 2-10 seasons. The structural-doom narrative obscures the simpler explanation. (2026-05-07 Bad Football Drives Fans Away Faster Than Bad Structure)
  • Look down at the ripples, not out at the horizon. Sport-survival prescription: focus on the week-seven product on any given Saturday rather than surveying the structural landscape. Looking at the horizon will make you puke; looking at the ripples is what's still beautiful. (2026-05-07 Look at the Ripples Not the Horizon)
  • Pat Fitzgerald to Michigan State is a stupid hire. Both hosts. Hazing scandal aside, he's a 4-20 coach over the last two Northwestern seasons, has zero portal-era experience, and plays an aesthetically unappealing brand. The closest defense (donor-friendly, dependable, "molder of men") is the safe-hire defense, and safe hires don't beat Ohio State / Indiana / Oregon / Penn State / USC in the modern Big Ten. (2026-05-07 Pat Fitzgerald to Michigan State Is a Stupid Hire)
  • The best modern hires are the risky ones, not the safe ones. Lincoln Riley to USC, Brian Kelly to LSU, Lane Kiffin to LSU, Dabo's promotion of Swinney from interim — none of those were safe. Programs that take a swing tend to either land a great coach or fail visibly fast. Programs that hire for safety (Justin Wilcox at Oregon, Tom Clements at Notre Dame in earlier cycles) end up with mediocre stewardship. (2026-05-07 Modern Hires Reward Risk Not Safety)
  • Most exciting new QB-OC pairings: Alberto Mendoza / Buster Faulkner at Georgia Tech (the brother factor); Anthony Colandrea / Matt Rhule + Dana Holgorsen at Nebraska; Aaron Philo at Florida; Sam Leavitt with Lane Kiffin at LSU (with the health asterisk). The high-floor low-ceiling vs. high-ceiling low-floor distinction matters. (2026-05-07 Best New QB OC Pairings 2026)
  • DJ Lagway / Jake Spavital at Florida is the highest-variance pairing in the sport. It's all on the table. Could be 77-38 wins, could be 64-61 losses, could be a 33-touchdown / 16-interception season. Fireworks in every direction; nothing in between. (2026-05-07 Lagway Spavital Is the Highest Variance Pairing)
  • Wear your team's gear regardless of how bad they are. Nobody respects fair-weather wearing. The dude who wore Indiana football gear through the bad years and is still wearing it through the title is the canonical example of who gets respect when the cycle turns. The gear is also no longer just team identity — it's a marker of place and time in your life. (2026-05-07 Wear Your Team's Gear Through Thick and Thin)
  • Sark is not on the hot seat at Texas; Arch Manning's benchmark is the Heisman invite, not the trophy. Sark's done a good job. Hot-seat talk is unfair. For Arch, given the cumulative public-attention level the family name produces, the test is whether he ends up in the Heisman ceremony — not winning it. Falling short of that with health would be the disappointment. (2026-05-07 Arch Manning's Real Bar Is the Heisman Invite)
  • Texas falling short of the final four (assuming reasonable health) is somewhat disappointing. The combination of recruiting, spending, and roster construction means top-four is the implicit expectation. Anything short of that is a soft failure of the expectation set the program built for itself. (2026-05-07 Texas Final Four Or Soft Failure)
  • Mike Norvell at Florida State is toast — the buyout is the only reason he's still there. Not a question of whether, but when. The 2025 team was actually competitive (close losses, three-and-a-half-minutes-from-9-3 ACC type), but two consecutive cycles of bad portal QB hires have destroyed program credibility. The Bud Elliott / Cover 3 podcast walkdown ("we're going to put in the level of effort that we see the administration putting in") is the canonical fan-side signal. (2026-05-07 Mike Norvell Is Toast)
  • Saban's retirement created hundreds of millions of dollars of unintended consequences. DeBoer-to-Alabama, Lanning-staying, Sherrone Moore looking at Kalen DeBoer interest, Norvell-being-stuck — all downstream of one retirement. The cascade is the example of how a single decision at the top of the sport reshapes everything below. (2026-05-07 Sabans Retirement Cascade)
  • Video-podcast presence: don't dress like loungewear, but don't be the seven-year-old usher. The look matters less than the presence — life in the eyes, sitting up, looking engaged. The two failure modes are (1) appearing unwashed/disengaged in loungewear and (2) over-styled "cool host" affectations like sneakers with a suit. The middle is the right place to land. (2026-05-07 Video Podcast Presence Sit Up and Be Engaged)

Segment Breakdown

1. Cold Open — Australian TV

Dan recommends Australian rom-com Colin from Accounts (Foxtel / Paramount+ in the US), 14 episodes in. Brief riff on Dan's accent attempts.

2. Episode Format Setup

Public companion to Tuesday's Patreon Q&A. More questions than they could fit in part one; this is the overflow plus public-friendly questions. Light meta-commentary on getting people to download the show without being annoying about it ("don't tell them at lunch — tell them before a commute").

3. 24-Team Playoff / The Doomer Question

Anonymous member raises the AFCA's 24-team-playoff recommendation as a sport-killer concern. Show response (across two takes): the sport is unkillable so long as the week-seven product is intact, but the real risk is structural barrier-to-entry for new fans. Saturdays still matter; the structural noise around them matters less than fans think. The bigger concern is that decision-makers and consumers have never been further apart. Fans don't leave because of structural change; fans leave because their team loses.

4. Pat Fitzgerald to Michigan State — Tyler's Question

Both hosts hate the hire. Tyler's framing: "extreme pivot with a 7-5 ceiling." Show response: the only defense is the donor/molder-of-men/dependable-old-school case, which is the safe hire defense — and safe hires don't beat the modern Big Ten. Modern good hires are risky (Lincoln Riley, Brian Kelly, Lane Kiffin), not safe (Justin Wilcox at Oregon, Tom Clements at Notre Dame). The Michigan State conference-context check: in their conference now are returning national champion Indiana, contending Oregon, USC, Washington, UCLA-on-the-rise under Chesney, Penn State investing heavily, Ohio State, Illinois ascending, Minnesota. This is not the level of swing the program needed.

5. Best New QB-Coach Pairings — Chaka's Question

Show enumerates: Alberto Mendoza / Buster Faulkner at Georgia Tech (brother of Fernando, fanfare carried over); Anthony Colandrea + Matt Rhule + Dana Holgorsen at Nebraska (high-floor low-ceiling); Aaron Philo at Florida (sleeper); Sam Leavitt with Kiffin at LSU (with health asterisk); Bryce Underwood / Jason Beck / Whittingham at Michigan (with the running-QB caveat from Bill Connelly's 2026-04-30 read). Highest-variance pairing: DJ Lagway / Jake Spavital at Florida — could produce a 33-TD / 16-INT season; "could be 77-38 or 64-61." Nico Iamaleava-vibe energy at UCLA also worth tracking under Chesney. Cutter Boley at Kentucky under Dillingham + the QB battle there is interesting because of Dillingham's prior recruiting interest in Boley dating back to Oregon.

6. Off-Topic — Wearing Team Gear in Public — David's Question

David asks about whether to wear team gear when the team is historically bad. Show response: wear it through thick and thin; people respect fair-weather absence less than fair-weather presence. The Indiana fan in Ty's network who wore Indiana football gear through the bad years and is still wearing it through the title is the canonical sicko-respect case. Gear is also a marker of place-and-time in your life, not just team identity.

7. Sark Hot Seat / Arch Manning Hype — Chris and Dan's Questions

Hot-seat talk on Sark is unfair — he's done a good job; show pushes back on the framing. Texas's actual benchmark: top-four (assuming reasonable health and luck). Short of that is a soft failure of self-set expectations. For Arch: given the cumulative public-attention the family name has generated, the real benchmark is the Heisman invite, not the trophy. He's already at #1 in seven mock drafts; the show isn't worried about him being a top NFL prospect. The benchmark is whether the household-name level translates into the Heisman ceremony.

8. Mike Norvell at Florida State — Justin's Question

Show response: he's toast. Not a question of if, but when. 2025 wasn't actually that bad (close losses; competitive); but two consecutive cycles of bad portal QB hires (DJ Uiagalelei in cycle one; show is skeptical of Ashton Daniels in cycle two) have eroded credibility past recovery. The Bud Elliott / Cover 3 / Nolecast walkdown — "we're going to put in the level of effort that we see the administration putting in" — is the canonical fan-side capitulation signal. Schedule analysis: at SMU, at Alabama, Virginia, at Louisville short-week, at Miami, Clemson home, at Pitt, Florida-to-close. 7-5 if mediocre, 9-3 ceiling if good.

9. Saban Retirement Cascade

Adjacent to the Norvell discussion: show pauses to enumerate the downstream consequences of Saban's retirement. DeBoer to Alabama. Lanning staying at Oregon (not jumping to Alabama). Sherrone Moore looking at the Kalen DeBoer interest from Michigan. Norvell stuck at FSU because the carousel his program needed to tap was already moving. Hundreds of millions of dollars of unintended consequences from one retirement.

10. Off-Topic — Video Podcast Presence — Dan's Question

Show response: it's not about appearance, it's about presence. Two failure modes: (1) loungewear-dressed-like-you-don't-care (the unwashed-hoodie problem); (2) over-styled "cool host" affectations (Jordans with a suit; sneakers with formal wear). Cole Cubelic gets called out gently for the suit-with-sneakers look. Middle is right: dress for the medium with bare-minimum respect; sit up straight; have life in your eyes. Cranky-boomer-talk caveat acknowledged.

11. Outro

Setup of upcoming summer programming: Big Ten vibes, ACC vibes, Sark Tank returning. Newsletter shoutout (Tyler at Quick Slants on Iowa State). Schedule note: cadence flips to 3 episodes per week starting July.

Members Heard From

  • (Anonymous) — 24-team playoff doomerism
  • Tyler — Pat Fitzgerald to Michigan State
  • Chaka — best new coach/QB pairings
  • David — wearing team gear in public
  • Chris — Sark hot seat
  • Dan (member, not host) — Arch Manning expectations + video podcast presence
  • Justin — Mike Norvell / Florida State

Teams Discussed

  • Michigan State — Pat Fitzgerald hire (anchor)
  • Northwestern — Pat Fitzgerald's prior program
  • Ohio State — Big Ten conference-context check
  • Indiana — returning national champion in MSU's conference
  • Oregon — Big Ten conference-context check
  • USC — Big Ten conference-context check
  • Washington — Big Ten conference-context check
  • UCLA — Chesney's portal recruiting class top-five-or-six nationally
  • Penn State — Matt Campbell investment
  • Illinois — Big Ten ascending program
  • Minnesota — Big Ten always-tricky program
  • Wisconsin — show's wait-and-see read
  • Texas — Sark hot seat + Arch Manning expectations
  • Florida State — Mike Norvell anchor
  • Florida — Aaron Philo + DJ Lagway / Jake Spavital
  • Georgia Tech — Alberto Mendoza + Buster Faulkner
  • LSU — Sam Leavitt + Kiffin
  • Michigan — Bryce Underwood / Beck / Whittingham
  • Nebraska — Anthony Colandrea + Rhule + Holgorsen
  • Kentucky — Will Stein / Cutter Boley
  • Auburn — Alex Golesh
  • Tennessee — referenced
  • Oklahoma State — Eric Morris / Drew Mestemaker pairing reference
  • Notre Dame — Marcus Freeman / CJ Carr context; historical Tom Clements safe-hire reference
  • Alabama — Saban retirement cascade
  • Miami — FSU schedule context
  • Pittsburgh — FSU schedule context
  • Clemson — FSU schedule + Dabo Swinney historical risky-hire reference
  • Iowa State — Matt Campbell historical reference; Tyler's newsletter

People Discussed

  • Pat Fitzgerald — Michigan State HC; the questioned hire
  • Jonathan Smith — Michigan State predecessor; flopped
  • Mark Dantonio — Michigan State historical reference
  • Mel Tucker — Michigan State brief-tenure reference
  • Mike Hankwitz — Northwestern long-tenure DC under Fitzgerald
  • Steve Sarkisian — Texas; not on hot seat
  • Arch Manning — Texas QB; Heisman benchmark
  • Mike Norvell — Florida State HC; toast
  • Ashton Daniels — FSU QB; show isn't sold
  • DJ Uiagalelei — FSU prior cycle QB
  • Jordan Travis — FSU last good QB
  • Gus Malzahn — FSU OC who walked
  • Alex Atkins — FSU prior OC, retired
  • Bud Elliott — Cover 3 / Nolecast podcast host
  • Nick Saban — retirement cascade anchor
  • Kalen DeBoer — Alabama HC; cascade beneficiary
  • Dan Lanning — Oregon HC; cascade non-mover
  • Sherrone Moore — Michigan HC; cascade reference
  • Alberto Mendoza — Georgia Tech QB; Fernando's brother
  • Fernando Mendoza — Georgia Tech via Indiana legacy
  • Buster Faulkner — was Georgia Tech OC, now Florida
  • Aaron Philo — Florida QB
  • Haynes King — Georgia Tech outgoing QB (graduated/transferred)
  • Anthony Colandrea — Nebraska QB
  • Matt Rhule — Nebraska HC
  • Dana Holgorsen — Nebraska OC
  • Dylan Raiola — Nebraska prior QB context
  • Sam Leavitt — LSU QB
  • Lane Kiffin — LSU HC
  • Bryce Underwood — Michigan QB
  • Jason Beck — Michigan OC
  • Kyle Whittingham — Michigan defensive hire
  • Will Stein — Kentucky HC
  • Kenny Minchey — Kentucky QB context
  • Cutter Boley — Kentucky QB battle context
  • Kenny Dillingham — Arizona State HC; Boley familiarity
  • Alex Golesh — Auburn HC
  • Byrum Brown — Auburn QB context
  • Drew Mestemaker — Oklahoma State QB; Eric Morris pairing
  • Eric Morris — Oklahoma State HC
  • Bob Chesney — UCLA HC; portal recruiting class top-five-or-six
  • Marcus Freeman — Notre Dame HC
  • CJ Carr — Notre Dame QB
  • Justin Wilcox — historical safe-hire reference (Oregon era)
  • Tom Clements — historical Notre Dame safe-hire reference
  • Lincoln Riley — USC; canonical risky hire that paid off (or didn't, depending on read)
  • Brian Kelly — LSU; canonical risky hire
  • Dabo Swinney — Clemson; risky-promotion historical reference
  • Jack Del Rio — historical USC safe-hire-that-didn't-happen
  • Mario Cristobal — Oregon historical reference (left)
  • Chip Kelly — Oregon historical reference (left)
  • Willie Taggart — Oregon historical reference (left)
  • Dan Lanning — Oregon (now-permanent)
  • DJ Lagway — Florida QB; highest-variance pairing
  • Jake Spavital — Florida OC
  • Carson Beck — last-year 4-TD-and-4-INT-game reference
  • Eli Manning — historical 4-TD/5-INT reference
  • Tyler (Solid Verbal newsletter) — Quick Slants Iowa State piece
  • Cole Cubelic — referenced re: video-podcast suit-with-sneakers look

Segments

  • Cold open / Australian TV
  • Public Q&A (the bulk)
  • Off-topic close (video podcast presence)

Running Threads

  • The decision-makers vs. consumers gap — running diagnosis of why the doom narrative around college football persists even as the sport remains structurally healthy
  • The week-seven Saturday as the show's fundamental optimism anchor
  • The Saban retirement cascade as a structural lens for understanding the 2025-2026 carousel
  • Risky vs. safe coaching hires — the show's developing taxonomy of why modern programs need to take swings
  • Bad QB play as the most underrated structural variable for a coach's tenure
  • "Closest to the pin" framing applied to the show's own takes (Texas finishing the four; Arch making the Heisman ceremony)

Open Questions

  • Does the AFCA's 24-team recommendation actually go into effect in 2027, or does sanity intervene?
  • Does Pat Fitzgerald produce any spring/summer signal that contradicts the "stupid hire" framing?
  • Does Arch Manning end up in the Heisman ceremony (the show's named benchmark)?
  • Does Mike Norvell survive 2026, or does the buyout math finally clear?
  • Does Jake Spavital + DJ Lagway produce a 33-TD / 16-INT season worth the highest-variance-pairing call?