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SP+

last_updated
2026-04-30
discussion_volume
medium

Bill Connelly's projection system. The show treats SP+ as the canonical numerical reference for talking about team quality, returning production, and preseason projections — not the only system, but the one whose framing the show consistently borrows.

Current Show Posture

As of 2026-04-30:

The show defers to SP+ as a baseline reference when discussing relative team strength, conference distribution shape, and where consensus lands on a program. The system's annual cycle is now notably delayed by the portal — Bill's first 2026 SP+ post didn't ship until late March, vs. early February historically. That delay is itself a data point about the state of the sport.

SP+ feeds directly into the horizontal-vs-vertical conference frame — that frame is built on SP+ team-rank distributions across a conference.

Evolution Timeline

  • Pre-vault — Long-running reference system the show defers to whenever a numerical projection is invoked.
  • 2026-04-30 — First explicit characterization in the vault, including Bill's coaching-effects logic and his transfer-multiplier conventions (G5→P4: 1.0 with the suggestion it should be 0.9; FCS→FBS: 0.5; D2/NAIA: case-by-case).

Recurring Frames Within the Concept

  • Coaching effects — Bill's projection-system rule that dramatic underachievement + new coach → mean reversion (Oklahoma State 2026); best season in program history + losing head coach → projected collapse (North Texas 2026).
  • Transfer multipliers — the credit Bill assigns to incoming production by competition level.
  • Returning production — Bill's recurring metric the show defers to when arguing about a team's structural floor.

Episode Appearances