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NFL Draft Preview with Nate Tice

date
2026-04-21
episode_type
guest-interview
source
public
guest
[[People/Nate Tice|Nate Tice]]

Hosts: Ty Hildenbrandt & Dan Rubenstein Guest: Nate Tice (Yahoo Sports, 301 Podcast) Date: April 21, 2026 Listen: Apple · Spotify · YouTube

[!note] Episode Concept Annual NFL Draft preview — a Solid Verbal tradition going back four or five years with Nate Tice. A "point of intersection" episode where college football overlaps with the NFL. Nate walks through his big board, the 2026 class's character (functional, not generational; OL-rich; defense-leaning), Fernando Mendoza's ceiling, how Indiana's playoff run changed scouting data, and what the Giants should do with picks 5 and 10. Draft goes Thursday-Friday in Pittsburgh.

Key Takes

  • Fernando Mendoza grades out similarly to C.J. Stroud, with Matt Ryan as his highest-end comparison. Nate: next tier of QB behind Caleb/Maye/Luck — can be a QB6-12 every year, the kind of player you can win a Super Bowl with. → take
  • The 2026 class is functional, not generational. Defense and offensive line drive the first round. Around eight true "blue chips." Useful > star power. → take
  • Offensive line is the class. Could be 10 OL in the first round. Nate's planted flag. Monroe Freeling (Georgia) one of the most improved players he's ever scouted. Max Iheanachor (ASU) at 11 on his big board. → take
  • Jeremiyah Love is excellent but not generational. He's Jahmyr Gibbs / Ashton Jeanty tier — not Zeke / Bijan / Gurley / Saquon. Nate pushing back on the language escalating around Love. → take
  • Arvell Reese is the best player in this draft, period. Can play edge or linebacker. The NFL is far more scheme-diverse than analysts acknowledge. → take
  • Giants should go defense / defense at 5 and 10, not receiver. Rebuilding teams don't draft WRs early — they're the cherry on top, not the foundation. Caleb Downs at 5 if there. → take
  • Indiana's playoff run gave scouts data they wouldn't otherwise have on Mendoza. FEI had Indiana at the 4th toughest schedule — getting to see Mendoza vs. Oregon twice, Ohio State, Miami = real NFL-grade reps. → take
  • Mendoza's Ohio State third-and-two deep ball to Charlie Becker is the throw that won Nate over. Taking the hard-but-correct answer under pressure in the second half of the Big Ten Championship. "That is real F-ing NFL play." → take
  • Kayden McDonald is the most productive nose tackle Nate has seen — uncommon archetype. Ohio State DT who both eats space AND makes plays. → take
  • T.J. Parker is the toughest, most competitive edge in the class. The Clemson edge rusher distinguished himself because he plays every snap like the last play of the Super Bowl — in contrast to teammate Peter Woods, whose effort levels dropped. → take
  • Eli Raridon is Nate's tight end guy — a Notre Dame TE who can actually in-line block. Nate has him at 47; consensus next grade is 96. → take
  • Kenyon Sadiq is on the Vernon Davis / Tommy Tremble spectrum. Oregon TE — explosive, natural hand-catcher, rocked-up small-forward build. Nate had him at 19. → take
  • Dillon Thieneman's Purdue tape projects better to NFL role than his Oregon tape does. Used more on the back end at Purdue, which mirrors how NFL teams will deploy him. First-round buzz, Cowboys at 12. → take
  • Matt Patricia deserves credit for how he deployed Reese and Styles at Ohio State. A Belichick-fronts scheme that let both linebackers rush, drop, cover, blitz — unlocked Caleb Downs too. "Matt Patricia was starting to get hype again. That's my mean take." → take
  • Quarterbacks under 205 lbs almost never succeed in the NFL. Nate's study since 2000: basically Kirk Cousins, Jeff Garcia, Lamar Jackson. Applied skepticism toward Ty Simpson and Garrett Nussmeier's ceilings. → take
  • Dante Moore probably should have declared — top-20 money beats another year of college financially. Moore would have gone in the teens; four years of ~$4M/year + potential fifth-year option > one-year guaranteed college money. → take
  • Headsets have made college football offenses more complicated and QBs better prepared. Terminology can actually be communicated — more huddling, slower tempo, more NFL-adjacent mental reps. → take
  • "Odd mirror" fronts — three-down with QB-spy and RB-chaser behind — are giving NFL QBs fits. Jim Leonhard at Wisconsin and Kirby Smart at Georgia popularized it; NFL teams now copying. No good counters yet. → take

Segment / Story Breakdown

1. Cold Open — Why This Episode Exists

Teams / People involved: Nate Tice, New York Giants (Dan's team), Notre Dame, Penn State

Annual tradition, year four or five. Point of intersection for college football and NFL. Dan frames it: listeners may have a favorite-team player going pro, or a general interest in where college talent lands. NIL and portal era add new wrinkles — how NFL teams evaluate players who transferred, sat, or cashed in. Ty Simpson highlighted as the example: could have come back for big money, instead declared.

Next week: NFL Draft follow-up through a fantasy football lens.

2. Draft-Week Pittsburgh Sandwich Preamble

Teams / People involved: Nate Tice, Paul Chryst

Ice-breaker: Nate was a GA at Pitt under Paul Chryst right out of college. Lived on Carson Street, South Side. Recommends Carson Street Deli and Over the Bar (a.k.a. "Bicycle Bar"), which is where he learned about peanut butter burgers.

Nate Tice

Pittsburgh — they put french fries on salads and peanut butter on burgers. But apparently that's more popular nationwide than just Pittsburgh.

3. Shape of the 2026 Class

Teams / People involved: Multiple prospects

Nate's thesis: not a generational draft, but a very functional one. Defense and OL stacked. Around eight true blue chips. The lack of elite consensus means more perceived surprises — many players are role-specific or scheme-specific, and landing spots will matter more than usual.

Tiers: blue chips (true first-round), green chips (picks 20-40), yellow chips (picks 40-65). Day-two edge rusher group has six guys with basically the same grade — hard to parse without knowing the scheme fit.

Nate Tice

I don't think useful is maybe the best word I could describe the players in this draft as opposed to maybe star power. A lot of useful, good players.

4. Single-Skill Specialists — Who Does One Thing Better Than Anyone?

Teams / People involved: Kayden McDonald (Ohio State), Eli Raridon (Notre Dame), T.J. Parker (Clemson), Peter Woods

  • Kayden McDonald — most productive NT Nate has seen. Eats space AND makes plays, which is rare for the archetype. Young, late starter.
  • Eli Raridon — the day-two TE who can actually in-line block on film (not just in projection). Two ACLs early in his career may have capped the ceiling. Contrast: Colston Loveland was projection; Raridon is already it.
  • T.J. Parker — toughest, most competitive edge in the class. Sets the edge, does the dirty work every snap. Teammate Peter Woods dropped because effort levels wavered and production didn't come. Nate was very high on Clemson last year — "disappointing" is the word for 2025.

5. Force-the-Team-to-Change Unicorns

Teams / People involved: Arvell Reese (Ohio State), Sonny Styles, Treydan Stukes (Arizona), Keionte Scott (Miami)

Arvell Reese is the best player in the draft. Edge or linebacker — doesn't matter; the NFL is more diverse than analysts allow. Other unicorns tend to be on defense this year (vs. last year's Nick Emmanwori on the Seahawks). Slot/safety conversion types: Treydan Stukes (53 on Nate's board), Keionte Scott. Slot is now the single most-strained position in two-high defenses — "like a helicopter" while outside corners are "planes."

6. The Ohio State Factory

Teams / People involved: Ohio State, Matt Patricia, Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs

Ohio State on pace to make history with top-10 picks. Nate's take on Matt Patricia: he actually used Reese and Styles correctly — on the ball, off the ball, in the A-gap, running with receivers 20 yards downfield, in the flat, blitzing. Belichick-style fronts unlocked Caleb Downs in the invert-heavy middle.

Nate Tice

My mean takeaway is: I knew I should have known that these Ohio State defenders were going to be so talented because Matt Patricia was starting to get hype again.

7. Fernando Mendoza — Singular QB

Teams / People involved: Fernando Mendoza, Indiana, Ohio State, Charlie Becker, Caden Curry, Las Vegas Raiders

Graded similar to C.J. Stroud. Highest-end comp: Matt Ryan. Next tier behind Caleb/Maye/Luck — the QB6-12 every-year profile (Dak, Stafford, Jordan Love). You can win a Super Bowl with this archetype.

Mendoza's strengths: - 6'5", 235 — plus-plus physical traits - Sneaky-good athlete (Nate was underrating him) - On-time and accurate — the "boringness" of RPOs masks the precision - Doesn't make the same mistake twice - Third down / red zone / two-minute — runs real concepts, multiple reads - Warrior mentality — takes hits, pops back up

The play that sold Nate: Big Ten Championship, second half vs. Ohio State, third-and-two. Indiana trailing. Mendoza getting "tombstoned" by Caden Curry all game. Crosser open in front of him for an easy first. Instead takes the hard-but-correct answer — deep ball to Charlie Becker (#8) as he's getting hit. On the money.

Nate Tice

That is real F-ing NFL play. Like, that is that, those, that is finding those aggressive answers.

Nate wrote 4,000 words on Mendoza (two days late to his editor). LinkedIn-personality / kicker-facemask stuff is authentic, not phony.

Dan pulls the thread: Mendoza is the antidote to the "we think X could be good but don't have tape" archetype (Anthony Richardson, J.J. McCarthy). Indiana's deep-playoff schedule — Oregon twice, Ohio State, Miami — gave scouts real data. FEI had Indiana 4th toughest schedule.

8. Starts Under Belt — Dante Moore, Ty Simpson

Teams / People involved: Dante Moore (Oregon), Ty Simpson (Alabama)

Why starts matter: you get to make mistakes when no one is watching — not when Heisman odds and national-championship stakes are on the line. Mendoza got to make his freshman-year mistakes at Cal.

Dante Moore would have been Nate's top-20 pick had he declared. Monetarily: ~$4M/year × 4-5 years at pick 22 > one-year guaranteed college money. Nate would have taken the deal. Moore's year showed blemishes — fast checkdowns, safe-answer defaults on unfamiliar concepts. OC leaves Oregon, so next year isn't the same offense either (internal promotion though).

Ty Simpson — Nate has him grouped with Garrett Nussmeier in the 40-50 range. Both are coaches' kids, both smaller, both hit with injuries. Both push the ball, have proper timing already. But the under-205 pound cliff is real: since 2000, only Kirk Cousins, Jeff Garcia, Lamar Jackson, and arguably Aaron Brooks. Pre-merger additions: Fouts, Montana, Flutie. Outliers — "that's why we remember them."

9. Nate's Planted Flags

Teams / People involved: Monroe Freeling (Georgia), Max Iheanachor (Arizona State), Denzel Boston, Eli Raridon, Keyron Crawford, Keldric Faulk, De'Zhaun Stribling, Bryce Lance, Jonah Coleman

  • OL class is the class. 10 OL possible in round one. Monroe Freeling one of the most improved players Nate has scouted. Max Iheanachor — 11 on big board, learned football five years ago.
  • Denzel Boston — steamed higher than consensus. Rams-McVay archetype. 6'4", 215, returns punts.
  • Eli Raridon at 47 on board; consensus next-best is 96.
  • Keyron Crawford and Keldric Faulk — Auburn front (D.J. Durkin) did too much, hard to grade.
  • De'Zhaun Stribling (Ole Miss) — best blocking receiver in the class; Nate's guilty-pleasure extra-game watch.
  • Bryce Lance (North Dakota State, Trey Lance's brother) and Jonah Coleman (Washington RB) — doubles-hitters.

10. Instructive One-on-One Matchups

Teams / People involved: Zion Young (Mizzou), Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), R. Mason Thomas (Oklahoma), Spencer Fano (Utah), D'Angelo Ponds (Indiana)

  • Zion Young vs. Kadyn Proctor — power vs. power; Young outpowered a 360-pounder.
  • Max Iheanachor vs. David Bailey / Romello Height / Lee Hunter (Texas Tech) — Iheanachor shut down a top-5 pick in true pass sets. Stock way up.
  • Proctor vs. R. Mason Thomas — speed vs. power.
  • D'Angelo Ponds (Indiana) — Nate has him at 42. Antoine Winfield Sr. comp. Holds up vs. bigger WRs like Denzel Boston.

11. College ↔ NFL Scheme Feedback Loop

Teams / People involved: Jim Leonhard, Kirby Smart, Iowa State

  • Headsets in college → more complex offenses, more huddling, slower tempo, QBs learning NFL-adjacent concepts.
  • Three-down fronts / two-high shells — Iowa State (Domonique Orange) frustrating-to-scout because of constant looping.
  • Odd mirror fronts — three-down with a QB-spy and an RB-chaser. Originated (in Nate's tracking) with Jim Leonhard at Wisconsin; Kirby Smart at Georgia ran it for years. Now spreading to NFL, giving mobile QBs fits. Tackles set outside → edge rusher goes inside → QB sees a rushing lane → mirror-guy screams over the top. No good NFL counters yet.

12. Oregon Balance — Kenyon Sadiq & Dillon Thieneman

Teams / People involved: Oregon, Kenyon Sadiq, Dillon Thieneman, A'Mauri Washington, Bucky Irving, Tez Johnson

Ty's Oregon carveout after the Love / Raridon talk.

  • Sadiq — Vernon Davis / Tommy Tremble spectrum. Most natural hand-catcher Nate has seen. Not the perfect TE build — "rocked-up small forward." Tough blocker but split-out route-runner. 19 on board. Chiefs interest at pick 9.
  • Thieneman — Purdue tape projects better than Oregon tape to his NFL role. Versatile, good athlete, good tackler in space, intelligent closer on the football ("Monster Back" role, a.k.a. Budda Baker). Top-30 grade, not true first-round. Cowboys interested at 12.
  • Oregon guys who went back: A'Mauri Washington (DT, top-25 before he re-enrolled).

13. Giants at 5 and 10

Teams / People involved: New York Giants, John Harbaugh, Joe Schoen, Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles, Jordyn Tyson

Dan closes with the Giants fan question. Nate: defense / defense, or defense / OL. Not receiver — WRs are the cherry on top of a rebuild, not the foundation. If Styles is there at 5, love it. Caleb Downs "very comfortable."

Giants' third-and-long defense has been brutal. Downs is the smartest back-end fixer.

Meta-note: Joe Schoen met with Jordyn Tyson, but "John Harbaugh's making the pick."

Teams Discussed

  • Ohio State — factory of top-10 picks this year; Patricia's scheme unlocked the defensive freaks
  • Indiana — Mendoza's playoff run gave scouts real data; 4th toughest schedule
  • Notre Dame — Raridon and Jeremiyah Love; Riley Leonard callback
  • Clemson — T.J. Parker the competitor; Nate was high on them last year and "disappointing" summed up 2025
  • Oregon — Sadiq + Thieneman; Dante Moore future
  • Alabama — Ty Simpson and Kadyn Proctor
  • Georgia — Monroe Freeling; Kirby's long-standing odd mirror fronts
  • Miami — Rueben Bain (Brandon Graham comp), Keionte Scott
  • LSU — Nussmeier's brutal 2025 environment
  • Pittsburgh — draft location; Nate's GA days
  • Cal — Mendoza's origin point
  • Arizona State — Max Iheanachor
  • Washington — Denzel Boston; Jonah Coleman
  • Utah — Spencer Fano and tackles
  • Missouri — Zion Young
  • Auburn — Keyron Crawford, Keldric Faulk; D.J. Durkin front
  • Arizona — Treydan Stukes
  • Iowa State — Domonique Orange (tough to scout)
  • Oklahoma — R. Mason Thomas
  • Purdue — Thieneman's origin tape

People Discussed

Recurring Segments Invoked

  • Annual NFL Draft tradition with Nate Tice — year four or five of doing this
  • Future episode flagged: fantasy-football-lens draft follow-up
  • Next episode flagged: SEC vibe check (continuing the vibe-check series after John Kurtz' Big 12 visit)

Running Threads / Callbacks

  • Updates the Indiana thread: playoff run's side effect was giving NFL evaluators real data on Mendoza (Ohio State, Miami, Oregon twice)
  • Extends the Ty Simpson thread from Spring Intel: NFL case against him is the under-205 cliff
  • Clemson 2025 was "disappointing" — Peter Woods' stock dropping echoes last year's high Clemson stock that didn't cash
  • Dante Moore economic decision threads into broader NIL-vs-draft conversations
  • Riley Leonard callback — still the guy at the Colts

Open Questions

  • Does Arvell Reese actually go top-5? Nate thinks he's the best player, but position uncertainty could push him down.
  • Do the Giants actually go defense/defense or does Schoen push WR?
  • Does the under-205 study doom both Ty Simpson and Garrett Nussmeier?
  • How does Eli Raridon's consensus ranking (96) reconcile with Nate at 47? Who's right on draft night?
  • What's the NFL counter to odd mirror fronts? Nate says there isn't one yet.
  • Will Dante Moore regret not declaring — and does the next OC inherit a worse situation than projected?