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2026-07-26 - Big 12 Preview Part 3 - Utah's Identity Question, Houston's Rise and Oklahoma State's Reboot

date
2026-07-26
episode_type
recurring-segment
source
public

Public-feed Big 12 preview closer covering Utah, Houston, TCU, Arizona, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, UCF, and Cincinnati. Ty and Dan frame the bottom half and middle class of the league as high-variance but rarely disastrous, with Utah trying to retain identity after the Whittingham exit, Houston pushing from dark horse to fringe contender, TCU serving as the conference inkblot, Oklahoma State becoming Ty's big upside swing, and UCF/Cincinnati trying to turn workable building blocks into bowl seasons.

Key Takes

Segment Breakdown

1. Big 12 variance and housekeeping

Ty and Dan reopen the Big 12 preview by arguing that the league's middle and lower tiers have very few obvious disasters, only many teams balanced on whether new parts work quickly. Dan names the "Wile E. Coyote branch" version of the conference, while Ty notes that several teams are one or two successful answers away from changing the conversation.

2. Utah identity after Kyle Whittingham

Utah starts with the largest identity question: Morgan Scalley replaces Kyle Whittingham, the staff is almost entirely new, and the lines no longer look like the familiar Utah conveyor belt. Ty is narrowly over 8.5 and lands around 9-3, while Dan is closer to 8-4 because the back half of the schedule brings too many pop quizzes.

3. Houston as Ty and Dan's shared buy

Houston gets the warmest shared treatment of the episode. Ty points to Willie Fritz, coordinator continuity, returning production, Conner Weigman's health, and Makhi Hughes taking rushing pressure off the quarterback; Dan goes even higher, seeing a path to a 10-2 type record and a Big 12 title-game rematch with Texas Tech.

4. TCU as the conference inkblot

TCU becomes the Big 12 inkblot: optimism about line improvement, Jeremy Payne, Andy Avalos, and the new Gordon Sammis offense sits next to concern about Jaden Craig translating from Harvard and the late schedule hardening. Ty leans over 6.5 with 7-5 as a floor and 9-3 in range; Dan settles near 8-4, plus or minus one.

5. Arizona's renewed proof of concept

Arizona's 2025 recovery gives Brent Brennan a much stronger 2026 platform. Dan likes the coordinator continuity, Noah Fifita's stability, and the defense's front-level pieces; Ty worries that the 2025 heartbeat was the pass defense and that the secondary turnover is real, but still lands on a feisty 8-4 while Dan leans 9-3.

6. Arizona State's quarterback and schedule trap

Arizona State's preview centers on whether Cutter Boley can turn physical tools into responsible quarterbacking. Ty likes the receiver additions and Dillingham's offensive mind, but worries the run game, line, defensive front, and schedule push the Sun Devils toward 6-6; Dan is more willing to see 7-5 or 8-4 if the staff protects Boley.

7. Oklahoma State as Ty's big heart pick

Ty gives Oklahoma State the episode's emotional buy, arguing that Eric Morris' quarterback eye, Drew Mestemaker's arm talent, Caleb Hawkins, and Wyatt Young create rocket fuel for a team that had hit the end of the Gundy era. Dan likes the reset and the offense but stays closer to 7-5, while Ty pushes 8-4 or 9-3 against a 5.5 win total.

8. UCF Year 2 and Cincinnati's turnover problem

UCF gets a shared over-5.5 call because Alonza Barnett III fits Scott Frost's speed offense and the pass defense gives the Knights a real floor, though the pass rush still needs an answer. Cincinnati closes the preview with a 6-6/7-5 zone: the offensive line may be one of the league's best, but J.C. French, new coordinators, lost skill production, and defensive turnover leave the Bearcats needing a run game.

Members Heard From

  • None - host-only preview episode.

Teams Discussed

  • Utah Utes - Scalley transition, trench turnover, Devon Dampier development, schedule, and win-total debate.
  • Houston Cougars - Willie Fritz continuity, Conner Weigman health, Makhi Hughes role, defense, schedule, and contender case.
  • TCU Horned Frogs - Jaden Craig translation, Gordon Sammis offense, line improvement, pass defense, and late schedule.
  • Arizona Wildcats - Brent Brennan rebound, Noah Fifita stability, coordinator proof of concept, secondary turnover, and win range.
  • Arizona State Sun Devils - Cutter Boley, receiver upgrades, unsettled run game/line, defensive losses, and difficult schedule.
  • Oklahoma State Cowboys - Eric Morris reset, Drew Mestemaker, North Texas offensive import, defense questions, and Ty's aggressive over.
  • UCF Knights - Scott Frost Year 2, Alonza Barnett III, pass-defense foundation, pass-rush question, and bowl path.
  • Cincinnati Bearcats - Scott Satterfield bounce-back context, J.C. French, offensive-line strength, defensive turnover, and bowl math.

People Discussed

  • Ty Hildenbrandt - host.
  • Dan Rubenstein - host.
  • Morgan Scalley - Utah head coach and Whittingham successor.
  • Kyle Whittingham - former Utah coach whose departure frames the identity reset.
  • Devon Dampier - Utah quarterback development variable.
  • Willie Fritz - Houston coach and program-stability point.
  • Conner Weigman - Houston quarterback health and passing-development variable.
  • Makhi Hughes - Houston running back transfer expected to ease Weigman's rushing burden.
  • Jaden Craig - TCU quarterback and FCS-to-Big 12 translation point.
  • Gordon Sammis - TCU offensive coordinator.
  • Sonny Dykes - TCU coach and late-game handling question.
  • Brent Brennan - Arizona coach whose 2025 recovery gives the program proof of concept.
  • Noah Fifita - Arizona quarterback stability point.
  • Kenny Dillingham - Arizona State coach and offensive-protection argument.
  • Cutter Boley - Arizona State quarterback risk/reward case.
  • Eric Morris - Oklahoma State coach and quarterback-development thesis.
  • Drew Mestemaker - Oklahoma State quarterback and Ty's core reason for belief.
  • Scott Frost - UCF coach in Year 2 of the second Orlando tenure.
  • Alonza Barnett III - UCF quarterback and offense-upside variable.
  • Scott Satterfield - Cincinnati coach after a 2025 bounce-back and late collapse.
  • J.C. French - Cincinnati transfer quarterback replacing Brendan Sorsby.

Segments

  • Big 12 variance and housekeeping
  • Utah identity after Kyle Whittingham
  • Houston as Ty and Dan's shared buy
  • TCU as the conference inkblot
  • Arizona's renewed proof of concept
  • Arizona State's quarterback and schedule trap
  • Oklahoma State as Ty's big heart pick
  • UCF Year 2 and Cincinnati's turnover problem

Running Threads

  • The Big 12 middle class is defined by variance more than hopelessness.
  • Houston remains one of Ty's strongest Big 12 buys, with Dan now high enough to see title-game upside.
  • Oklahoma State under Eric Morris is the preview-cycle test case for whether a transferred G6 offense can scale up immediately.
  • TCU, Arizona State, UCF, and Cincinnati all orbit the same question: can one major building block cover enough roster turnover to reach bowl comfort?

Open Questions

  • How much of Utah's old trench-and-defense identity survives the Scalley reset?
  • Can Houston turn close-game clutch and returning production into a real Big 12 title-game run?
  • Does Jaden Craig translate fast enough for TCU before November arrives?
  • Is Ty too high on Oklahoma State, or is Drew Mestemaker the immediate Big 12 breakout quarterback?
  • Can UCF and Cincinnati both find enough offense to clear 5.5 wins?