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The expanded World Cup makes the bracket random

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Bill's biggest format point is that the 48-team World Cup makes group advancement easier while making knockout paths much stranger. Eight of twelve third-place teams advancing means early outcomes, goal differential, rotation, heat, and match-order quirks can produce bizarre Round of 32 pairings.

That is the off-topic cousin of college-football expansion talk. The field is broader and more forgiving, but the reward is not a cleaner tournament. It is a bigger bracket with more path luck, more favorite collisions, and more chances for a middle-tier team to find a lane.

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