Virginia's continuity and defense make it the safer pick.
Context
Dan trusts the Virginia starting point: a defense that prevented explosive passes, a strong offensive line, and more continuity than an NC State team that needs C.J. Bailey to create offense. He also gives home-field comfort extra weight in Week 0 and Week 1 because new teams have so much uncertainty to manage.
The pick is not a dismissal of NC State. Dan expects the Wolfpack to have a decent season, but he sees Virginia's defensive base and recent execution as the better early-game foundation.