Private HTML archive for show research
Export report
Episode note Use search for names/topics, the browse buttons for major indexes, and Backlinks below to see what points here.

2026-05-14 - Big Ten Vibe Check: Mays of May

date
2026-05-14
episode_type
recurring-segment
source
public

Public-feed Big Ten vibe check built around Mays of May, the show's May scenario format for testing what may happen before full preview season. The episode moves team by team through Big Ten upside and downside cases: Ohio State's playoff floor, Maryland's post-September credibility, Wisconsin's schedule-driven Fickell rescue path, Oregon's internal coordinator gamble, Iowa and UCLA as schedule-aided upside teams, Michigan's year-one volatility, and USC's brutal league draw.

Key Takes

  • Ohio State's playoff floor is shakier than usual, even if the show would not bet on a miss. The schedule, new offensive coordinator, defensive replacement load, and Julian Sayin expansion question make 9-3 more imaginable than in a normal Buckeye year. (2026-05-14 Ohio State Has a Precarious Playoff Path)
  • Maryland should win after September, but that is the floor of the case rather than the ceiling. Returning production, Malik Washington continuity, Clint Trickett's space-oriented offense, and a real pass rush make the post-September-win question a full yes. (2026-05-14 Maryland Should Win After September)
  • Wisconsin's schedule gives Luke Fickell a real save path. The show sees a quiet 8-4 as plausible if Colton Joseph stays healthy, Jeff Grimes gets merely workable offense, and the line transfer bet lands. (2026-05-14 Wisconsin Has a Fickell Save Path)
  • Oregon's title ceiling depends on whether internal coordinator continuity becomes ceiling-raising adaptation. The roster is not the concern; the test is whether Drew Mehringer and the defensive continuity can solve January-level opponents, not just preserve regular-season quality. (2026-05-14 Oregon Internal Hires Must Raise the Ceiling)
  • Iowa's 10-win playoff path is not a punchline with this schedule. The show treats a merely below-average passing game plus the normal Iowa defense/special-teams floor as enough to make 10-2 a real 50-50 type outcome. (2026-05-14 Iowa Has a Ten Win Path)
  • UCLA's eight-win path is real if the offensive line protects Nico. Bob Chesney's early buy-in, JMU-style transplant build, schedule pockets, and a manageable tier below Oregon/Michigan/USC give UCLA an actual runway. (2026-05-14 UCLA Has an Eight Win Path)
  • Michigan may look predictably messy in year one of the Whittingham/Underwood experiment. The schedule is nasty, the offense is philosophically uncertain, and Bryce Underwood's development inside a run-heavy structure is the central hinge. (2026-05-14 Michigan Could Be a Year One Mess)
  • USC has the unluckiest schedule in the Big Ten. The opponent list is hard, but the timing is worse: major opponents repeatedly get clean lead-ins or byes while USC absorbs the gauntlet. (2026-05-14 USC Drew the Unluckiest Big Ten Schedule)
  • The Big Ten's transplant rebuilds are the conference's May volatility engine. UCLA, Michigan, Penn State, and Iowa State-adjacent roster/coaching imports create a shared year-one question: how fast does imported culture travel in the portal era? (2026-05-14 Transplant Rebuilds Drive Big Ten Volatility)

Segment Breakdown

1. Cold Open - May, Phil Steele O'Clock, and Big Ten Setup

The show opens in offseason calendar mode: cold May weather, Phil Steele cover-silhouette season, Ty's private preview work, and the shift away from social-media dependency. Dan sets the structure as a Big Ten vibe check built on "X may be Y" propositions, then frames the hosts' Big Ten ties as permission to assess the league without a guest.

2. Ohio State May Miss the Playoff

The first May is the hottest: Ohio State could miss the playoff. The argument is not that the Buckeyes are likely to collapse, but that the schedule is unusually full of losable games: Texas, Indiana, Oregon, Iowa, USC, and Michigan. The show layers in new coordinator questions, the post-Brian Hartline receiver room, Arthur Smith's run-game influence, defensive front replacements, and how much more Julian Sayin will be asked to do.

3. Maryland May Win a Game After September

Maryland gets a backhanded positive May. The schedule gives the Terps plausible later wins against Rutgers, Purdue, Wisconsin, and maybe Illinois depending on placement. The substantive case is Malik Washington continuity, Clint Trickett opening up the offense, Pep Hamilton still helping the quarterback, and a pass rush that could cover defensive weaknesses.

4. Wisconsin May Save Luke Fickell's Job

Wisconsin's section turns on the schedule finally becoming reasonable. Notre Dame at Lambeau is hard, but the closing run of Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, and Minnesota gives the Badgers a path to ordinary competence. The show is interested in Colton Joseph's health, Jeff Grimes' offense, the offensive line transfer bet, and whether a strong defense plus workable offense gets Wisconsin to 8-4.

5. Oregon May Regret Two Internal Coordinator Hires

Oregon is discussed from a title-ceiling perspective rather than a floor perspective. The roster is loaded and Dante Moore's return keeps the window open, but Will Stein's departure makes Drew Mehringer the offensive question. Dan is less worried about the defensive transition because of Chris Hampton's existing influence and the returning front, but the offense must be more than familiar if Oregon wants to change the final playoff result.

6. Iowa May Go 10-2 and Make the Playoff

Iowa's case is familiar but credible: start with an eight-win floor, add a favorable schedule, and ask whether close losses finally flip. The quarterback competition is unresolved, but the supporting cast is good enough that a merely okay passing game could lift Iowa into a 10-win season. The show stops short of calling it likely, but treats it as a real half-May.

7. UCLA May Win Eight Games

UCLA gets one of the strongest positive vibes. Bob Chesney has created early buy-in, the recruiting/portal momentum is real, and the schedule contains a long middle tier of winnable games beneath Oregon, Michigan, and USC. The big asterisk is offensive line quality: Nico Iamaleava cannot absorb last year's sack volume if UCLA is going to turn the runway into eight wins.

8. Michigan May Be a Year-One Mess

Michigan's May is the uncomfortable one: a tough schedule, Iowa and Oklahoma immediately, Oregon and Ohio State on the road, and a philosophical uncertainty around Bryce Underwood in a Whittingham/Jason Beck structure. The show does not project a bad team, but it sees 8-4 as much more plausible than a clean playoff push and names 7-5 as the outer edge of the mess scenario.

9. USC May Have the Unluckiest Big Ten Schedule

USC closes the show as the cleanest schedule-luck case. The first three weeks are manageable, then Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Maryland, and UCLA arrive in a brutal sequence. The timing makes it worse: several opponents have byes or soft lead-ins before USC. The show still likes the roster and Jayden Maiava's offensive upside, but says the Big Ten gave USC the short straw.

10. Outro - Clip It in November, Listener Assignment, and Elective Surgery Follow-Up

Dan jokes that if any May prediction lands perfectly, he will clip it hourly in November. Ty asks listeners to email or comment with where the show is right or wrong, then repeats the public calls for following, subscribing, reviews, and Verballers.com. The close loops back to the prior calendar episode with listener-suggested elective hernia surgery as a way to clear Week 10.

Members Heard From

  • None - host-only public Big Ten vibe check.

Teams Discussed

  • Ohio State - playoff-miss possibility, schedule, Julian Sayin expansion, offensive/defensive coordinator questions.
  • Maryland - post-September win case, returning production, Malik Washington, pass rush, and new offensive structure.
  • Wisconsin - Luke Fickell save path, schedule relief, Colton Joseph, Jeff Grimes offense, and defensive competence.
  • Oregon - internal coordinator hires, Dante Moore's title-window year, defensive continuity, and January adjustment ceiling.
  • Iowa - 10-win/playoff possibility through schedule, defense, close-game regression, and marginal passing improvement.
  • UCLA - Bob Chesney momentum, Nico Iamaleava, offensive line risk, and eight-win schedule path.
  • Michigan - Kyle Whittingham year one, Bryce Underwood, Jason Beck, schedule difficulty, and run-heavy identity questions.
  • USC - unluckiest Big Ten schedule, Lincoln Riley offense, Jayden Maiava, Gary Patterson, and sustainability through the gauntlet.
  • Texas - Ohio State schedule context and Arch Manning defensive stress point.
  • Indiana - Ohio State and USC schedule context as a defending-champion Big Ten obstacle.
  • Iowa State - Cy-Hawk and first-year-coach context in Iowa's 10-win path.
  • Penn State - USC schedule gauntlet, Michigan back-half schedule, and Bob Chesney/Penn State hiring context.
  • Notre Dame - Wisconsin opener and Marcus Freeman early-season joke context.
  • Illinois - Maryland letdown spot and omitted Iowa-like upside case.
  • Rutgers - Maryland/Wisconsin/Michigan schedule context.
  • Purdue - Maryland/Wisconsin/UCLA schedule context.
  • Minnesota - Wisconsin/UCLA/Iowa schedule context.
  • Michigan State - Wisconsin and Michigan schedule context.
  • Washington - USC schedule gauntlet context.
  • California - UCLA opener.
  • San Diego State - UCLA September runway.
  • Nevada - UCLA winnable-game tier.
  • Oklahoma - Michigan September schedule stress.

People Discussed

  • Ty Hildenbrandt - host.
  • Dan Rubenstein - host.
  • Phil Steele - offseason preview calendar reference.
  • Ryan Day - Ohio State coach and floor-context anchor.
  • Julian Sayin - Ohio State QB expansion question.
  • Jeremiah Smith - Ohio State star receiver as transcribed; should be checked against canonical spelling if he becomes an entity.
  • Arthur Smith - Ohio State offensive coordinator question.
  • Matt Patricia - Ohio State defensive adjustment question.
  • Caleb Downs - Ohio State defensive replacement context.
  • Brian Hartline - Ohio State receiver-development continuity loss.
  • Cortez Hankton - Ohio State receiver coach.
  • Bill Landis - Ohio State WR2/Sayin context reference.
  • Arch Manning - Texas QB stress point for Ohio State defense.
  • Jayden Maiava - USC QB and Ohio State/USC schedule context.
  • Dante Moore - Oregon QB and title-window anchor.
  • Mike Locksley - Maryland pressure point.
  • Malik Washington - Maryland QB continuity case.
  • Clint Trickett - Maryland offensive coordinator philosophy.
  • Pep Hamilton - Maryland senior-advisor/QB-development continuity.
  • Dylan Stewart - true-freshman edge-rusher analogy.
  • Luke Fickell - Wisconsin job-security anchor.
  • Chris McIntosh - Wisconsin AD transition context.
  • Rocco Becht - Wisconsin schedule QB context.
  • CJ Carr - Notre Dame QB on Wisconsin schedule.
  • Nico Iamaleava - UCLA QB and offensive-line protection hinge.
  • Drake Lindsey - Wisconsin schedule QB context.
  • Abu Sama - Wisconsin running back context.
  • Colton Joseph - Wisconsin transfer QB.
  • Jeff Grimes - Wisconsin offensive coordinator.
  • Darian Mensah - Miami QB comparison used in transfer-QB discussion.
  • Carson Beck - transfer-QB comparison point.
  • Dan Lanning - Oregon title-window coach.
  • Will Stein - former Oregon OC, now Kentucky.
  • Drew Mehringer - Oregon internal offensive coordinator hire.
  • Kenyon Sadiq - Oregon offensive replacement context.
  • Chris Hampton - Oregon defensive continuity context.
  • Tosh Lupoi - Oregon defensive coordinator departure/context.
  • Fernando Mendoza - Oregon defensive schedule/non-schedule reference.
  • Evan Stewart - Oregon receiver health/make-or-break context.
  • Jeremiah McClellan - Oregon receiver depth.
  • Iverson Hooks - Oregon UAB transfer receiver.
  • Hank Brown - Iowa quarterback competition.
  • Jackson Hechlinski - Iowa quarterback competition.
  • Jalen Raynor - Cy-Hawk interception riff.
  • Bob Chesney - UCLA buy-in and fan-coach-crush anchor.
  • Wayne Knight - UCLA/JMU transfer running back joke reference.
  • Pat Kraft - Penn State hiring context.
  • Kenny Chesney - Bob Chesney name riff.
  • Kyle Whittingham - Michigan year-one identity anchor.
  • Bryce Underwood - Michigan QB development hinge.
  • Jason Beck - Michigan offensive structure.
  • Jordan Marshall - Michigan running back fit.
  • Andrew Marsh - Michigan receiver retention.
  • Jim Harbaugh - Michigan historical contrast.
  • Colston Loveland - Michigan national-title-era tight end contrast.
  • Mike Macdonald - Michigan defensive-staff contrast.
  • Jesse Minter - Michigan defensive-staff contrast.
  • Lincoln Riley - USC schedule and roster context.
  • Gary Patterson - USC defensive-improvement possibility.
  • Tanook Hines - USC receiver connection with Maiava.
  • Boobie Feaster - USC receiver depth context.
  • Caleb Williams - USC one-guy-offense comparison.

Segments

  • Big Ten vibe check
  • Mays of May scenario testing
  • Schedule-gauntlet and Trappertunity analysis
  • Year-one coach and transplant rebuild assessment
  • Big Ten playoff path discussion
  • Off-topic outro / elective surgery follow-up

Running Threads

  • Mays of May as a May-stage scenario format: plausible enough to test, not yet a full preview prediction.
  • Trappertunity continues as the schedule-geometry lens for USC, UCLA, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State.
  • Phil Steele O'Clock remains the offseason optimism background for roster/schedule hypotheticals.
  • Year-One Rebuild Template now has a Big Ten transplant variant across UCLA, Michigan, and Penn State.
  • Big Ten playoff access is framed less as a pure power-rating question and more as a schedule/timing/health survivability question.

Open Questions

  • Does Ohio State lose enough of the Texas/Indiana/Oregon/Iowa/USC/Michigan cluster to make playoff selection uncomfortable?
  • Does Maryland's returning production become meaningful improvement or just experience returning from a 4-8 baseline?
  • Does Wisconsin's offensive line and Colton Joseph's health give Luke Fickell the quiet 8-4 season the schedule permits?
  • Does Oregon's internal offensive promotion solve the January adjustment problem, or merely preserve regular-season efficiency?
  • Does Iowa get even below-average quarterback play, and is that enough to reach 10 wins?
  • Can UCLA's rebuilt offensive line protect Nico Iamaleava well enough to unlock the eight-win path?
  • Does Michigan's offense give Bryce Underwood enough vertical and QB-run runway to avoid the messier version of year one?
  • Does USC's roster quality overcome the Big Ten schedule draw, or does 9-3 become the ceiling of a very good team?