Ohio State has a precarious playoff path
Context
The show's read is not an Ohio State fade. It explicitly would not bet on the Buckeyes missing the playoff. The useful May scenario is that this particular Ohio State season has more plausible 9-3 paths than the program normally carries.
The risk stack is schedule plus novelty. Texas, Indiana, Oregon, Iowa, USC, Michigan, and the usual Big Ten body blows create enough losable inventory that a couple slips could put Ohio State in a Texas-like conversation about whether the non-conference gamble cost them. On the field, the offense has to expand Julian Sayin's role under Arthur Smith, find the right second receiver behind the Jeremiah Smith centerpiece, and make the run game more consistent. Defensively, Matt Patricia has to replace major front-seven and safety production while proving last year's personnel deployment was not a one-cycle luxury.