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2026-08-24 - Our 2026 College Football Playoff Predictions

date
2026-08-24
episode_type
recurring-segment
source
public

With game week finally here, Ty and Dan put their 2026 College Football Playoff forecasts on the record. They each build a 12-team field, compare the SEC-versus-Big-Ten math, argue over Houston, Texas Tech, New Mexico, and the teams just outside the bracket, then play their brackets forward through the semifinals. Both independently arrive at an Oregon–Ohio State national championship, with Dan taking Oregon because of playoff experience and Ty taking the Ducks because he sees the country's most balanced roster. The episode treats prediction as both accountability and entertainment: every pick is a receipt waiting for January.

Key Takes

Segment Breakdown

1. The prediction exercise and last year's receipts

Ty and Dan explain that the episode is the final piece of their preseason work: a complete bracket before the first games arrive. They revisit how imperfect last year's fields were, call the exercise fun but useless, and embrace the accountability of publishing wrong picks early enough for listeners to clip them later.

2. Building the 12-team fields

Dan puts Georgia, Texas, Oregon, Miami, Houston, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Indiana, Oklahoma, Boise State, Alabama, and Texas Tech into his field. Ty chooses Miami; Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana from the Big Ten; Georgia, Texas, LSU, Alabama, and Texas A&M from the SEC; Texas Tech from the Big 12; Notre Dame; and New Mexico as his G6 qualifier. The hosts compare the unusual possibility of two Big 12 teams with the decision to leave out a fourth Big Ten or fifth SEC team.

3. Seeding and playoff paths

The hosts seed the fields, revise Dan's Texas Tech/Alabama ordering to avoid a third Houston–Texas Tech meeting, and walk through first-round and quarterfinal matchups. Schedule quality, conference depth, and the difference between an AP ranking and a playoff resume become the main sorting tools. Notre Dame is treated as a one-seed-level team, while Texas Tech, Alabama, New Mexico, LSU, and Texas A&M carry different degrees of risk.

4. The national championship picks

Both brackets converge on Oregon versus Ohio State, despite the hosts not scripting the result. Dan takes Oregon because the Ducks have experienced the playoff stage, a deep defensive front, and enough quarterback seasoning to convert repeated near-misses into growth. Ty also takes Oregon, emphasizing balance from quarterback through the defense and the possibility that Ohio State arrives emotionally spent after a bare-knuckled Notre Dame semifinal.

5. Rapid fire and close

Dan says Houston is the prediction he would most proudly put on the wall, while Ty is least comfortable with Texas A&M and most likely to regret choosing Ohio State over Notre Dame. They close by asking listeners for their own brackets, reminding everyone that the season is finally here, and previewing the Week 0 show.

Members Heard From

  • None — host-only recurring segment.

Teams Discussed

People Discussed

Segments

  • 2026 playoff field construction
  • Seeding and bracket simulation
  • National championship predictions
  • Rapid-fire confidence, regret, and zag questions

Running Threads

  • The SEC's thick upper crust creates a real resume-comparison problem once nine conference games produce more losses.
  • Zagriculture now extends from counter-narratives to fully exposed playoff brackets, with Houston as Dan's personal flag.
  • The G6 playoff schedule rule remains a live constraint even when the hosts are trying to choose the most fun team rather than a mathematically certain one.
  • Oregon's recurring January ceiling question has moved from “can the Ducks get there?” to “can they finish the final game?”

Open Questions

  • Which of the two Oregon–Ohio State championship predictions survives the season's actual bracket?
  • Does Houston turn Dan's zag into a playoff field and Big 12 title result?
  • Can New Mexico win the messy G6 race if Jack Layne is healthy?
  • Does Notre Dame meet the episode's “playoff or failure” expectation?